Waratahs v Rebels

Thursday, 28 April 2011

VENUE & TIME: Sydney Football Stadium, Saturday April 30, 7.40pm (AEST).

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 1 – Waratahs 1, Rebels 0.

LAST TIME: February 18, 2011 (Melbourne) – Waratahs 43-0 Rebels (round 1).

WALKING WOUNDED: Waratahs skipper Phil Waugh and No.8 Wycliff Palu have both been ruled out with hamstring injuries. Pat McCutcheon and Dave Dennis have been promoted to the starting line-up while Ben Mowen shifts from blindside flanker to the back of the scrum. Flyhalf Berrick Barnes (concussion) and Kurtley Beale (knee) have been named in the starting XV but will have to prove their fitness by Friday before being cleared to play. Barnes' likely return will force Beale back to fullback, while former All Black Sosene Anesi will replace Drew Mitchell (broken leg) on the wing in the only other change to the backline. Rebels coach Rod Macqueen has lost patience with Danny Cipriani, dropping the England international to the bench for the Waratahs clash. James Hilgendorf will wear the No.10 jumper, while Stirling Mortlock (back) and Mark Gerrard (hamstring) have both overcome niggling injuries to form a dangerous centre pairing. Peter Betham has been given a start on the left wing forcing Cooper Vuna to the bench.

FORM:

Waratahs Past Five:

Week 10: Loss, 19-15 v Reds, Brisbane

Week 9: Loss, 31-17 v Blues, Auckland

Week 8: Win, 31-3 v Force, Perth

Week 7: Win, 23-16 v Chiefs, Sydney

Week 6: Win, 29-22 v Brumbies, Canberra

Rebels Past Five:

Week 10: Loss, 40-23 v Blues, Auckland

Week 9: Loss, 40-18 v Highlanders, Melbourne

Week 8: Bye

Week 7: Win, 26-25 v Force, Perth

Week 6: Win, 42-25 v Hurricanes, Melbourne

The Waratahs bounced back from their insipid display against the Blues with a much-improved showing against the Reds - but it wasn't enough to avoid a narrow defeat. Despite spending almost the entire second half in Reds territory, Chris Hickey's men were unable to find the tryline due to a combination of superb Reds defence and poor execution in attack. The loss leaves the Waratahs six points out of finals contention in seventh spot on the ladder, while they trail the Reds by 11 points in the Australian conference. The Rebels conceded three tries in the opening quarter against the Blues and looked set to concede a cricket score before they clawed their way back with two tries of their own to get within five points with seven minutes on the clock. While they have proven they can compete on their night having already posted three victories in their inaugural season, they must find a way to fix their defensive issues - and fast. The expansion club has the worst points against record in Super Rugby, conceding 322 points after nine matches - that's 37 more than the last placed Lions. The Rebels currently sit in last spot in the Australian conference and 12th on the overall ladder.

WHO'S HOT: The Waratahs front row of Benn Robinson, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Sekope Kepu monstered the Reds scrum during Saturday's loss. While their set-piece dominance went unrewarded on the scoreboard, it would not have been lost on Wallabies coach Robbie Deans who was in Brisbane to watch the game. Giant lock Sitaleki Timani made the most of his rare start while flanker Ben Mowen also got through plenty of work. Rebels No.8 Gareth Delve is his side's most consistent performer and was once again a standout performer in the loss to the Blues.

WE THINK: The Waratahs are still raging favourites to beat the Rebels this weekend but we certainly don't share the bookies' confidence. The loss of Phil Waugh and Wycliff Palu will even things out up front, while it's hard to see where the Waratahs' points are going to come from without Drew Mitchell. Five-eighth Berrick Barnes is no certainty to play and if he does take the field he'll be rusty after a month on the sidelines, while Kurtley Beale is battling a knee injury and could also be a late scratching. If the Rebels can get their defensive act together they are definitely capable of winning, but a narrow Waratahs win is the most likely result. Waratahs by five.

TEAMS:

Waratahs 15. Kurtley Beale, 14. Lachie Turner, 13. Ryan Cross, 12. Tom Carter, 11. Sosene Anesi, 10. Berrick Barnes, 9. Luke Burgess, 8. Ben Mowen, 7. Pat McCutcheon, 6. Dave Dennis, 5. Sitaleki Timani, 4. Dean Mumm (c), 3. Sekope Kepu, 2. Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1. Benn Robinson.

Reserves: 16. John Ulugia, 17. Al Baxter, 18. Kane Douglas, 19. Chris Alcock, 20. Brendan McKibbin, 21. Daniel Halangahu, 22. Tom Kingston.

Rebels: 1. Rodney Blake, 2. Ged Robinson, 3. Greg Somerville, 4. Alister Campbell, 5. Hugh Pyle, 6. Jarrod Saffy, 7. Michael Lipman, 8. Gareth Delve, 9. Nick Phipps, 10. James Hilgendorf, 11. Peter Betham, 12. Stirling Mortlock (c), 13. Mark Gerrard, 14. Lachlan Mitchell, 15. Julian Huxley.

Reserves: 16. Heath Tessmann, 17. Laurie Weeks, 18. Hoani Macdonald, 19. Tim Davidson, 20. Richard Kingi, 21. Cooper Vuna, 22. Danny Cipriani.